In recent years, global trade has been affected by a combination of unfavorable factors that have collectively been termed “Polycrisis“. These factors include a series of supply and demand shocks related to the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain disruptions, and the effects of increased uncertainty in trade policy caused by geopolitical rivalries.
The decline in merchandise exports was partly driven by falling prices of commodities such as oil and gas. At the same time, growth in trade in commercial services resulted from a resurgence in international travel and growth in digitally delivered services.
The volume of world merchandise trade is likely to increase by 3.0% in 2025, while world real GDP growth at market exchange rates is expected to remain steady at 2.7% in 2025.
Risks to the recovery and development of international trade are mainly related to geopolitical tensions and uncertainties.
Inflation and its impact on exports/imports are expected to gradually decline in 2025, allowing real incomes in advanced economies to rise again, leading to an increase in consumption of manufactured goods. A recovery in demand for traded goods in 2024 is already evident.
However, geopolitical tensions and political uncertainty could limit the extent of any trade recovery. While export growth in many countries should improve as soon as external demand for goods increases, food and energy prices could again be subject to spikes associated with geopolitical events.
The sustainability of global trade is also being tested by disruptions in the world’s two major shipping routes, the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal. Although by the middle of last year global transportation costs had returned to pre-pandemic levels, container shipping tariffs have begun to rise again.
WTO also notes tentative signs of fragmentation of trade flows, where exports and imports are reoriented according to geopolitical conditions. This sensitivity to geopolitical distance is particularly pronounced in strategic sectors such as semiconductors, telecommunications equipment, equipment needed for the transition to a green economy, pharmaceutical ingredients and essential minerals. In such an environment, it is vital to assess the export potential of any new market – and market ranking reports by Kompass can help you do just that.
What’s in store for exporters and importers in 2025
1. Economic trends
Inflationary pressures will increase and the Federal Reserve System will likely stop cutting rates. This will lead to tighter financial conditions, a stronger US dollar and a more challenging macroeconomic picture elsewhere.
In such an environment, going global is only possible by developing a sound strategy that takes into account as many key factors as possible and is backed by state-of-the-art Martech techniques.
2. Slowdown in global economic growth
Global growth is expected to be around 3%, which is slightly lower than in 2024. The main reasons will be demographic factors in developed countries and structural problems in China.
In such an environment, a strong digital B2B presence becomes a must rather than an option.
3. Geopolitical trends
Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election in 2024 significantly impacts global trade.
His ‘Make America great again’ policy may lead to a renegotiation of international alliances and increased protectionism. This could cause tensions with traditional US allies and escalate the trade war with China, further altering global trade routes.
It is important for exporters and importers to understand what alternative logistics solutions they can use when needed and how digital transformation can help them do so.
4. US-China rivalry
The US and China will continue to play leading roles in the global economy with projected growth rates of 2.7% and 4.5%, respectively.
The confrontation between the US and China will remain the key factor determining global geopolitical dynamics. Confrontation in the trade, technological and military spheres may intensify. At the same time, a complete economic “decoupling” is unlikely – Chinese companies will continue to expand abroad to circumvent trade barriers.
5. Growth of protectionism
The trend toward increased protectionism and economic nationalism is likely to continue.
U.S. protectionist policies may encourage other countries to retaliate, leading to further fragmentation of global supply chains. It could also increase inflationary pressures due to higher tariffs on imported goods.
In such an environment, it is important to make the right choice between adapting and standardizing your export marketing strategy.
6. Technological trends
- Artificial Intelligence Development. Significant progress is expected in the field of artificial intelligence, especially in the creation of autonomous AI agents. This could lead to revolutionary changes in various industries and increase productivity, including international marketing.
- Quantum technologies. By 2025, a breakthrough in quantum coding and quantum security is expected. This could have major implications for cryptography and cybersecurity.
- Development of “green” technologies. Active development of technologies aimed at combating climate changes and reducing carbon emissions will continue. Investment in renewable energy and energy efficiency technologies is expected to increase, as well as in the development of green marketing. China is leading the export of solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles, which is contributing to the global boom in clean energy technologies. This is expected to help reduce global carbon emissions, although success will depend on the political will of consumer countries.
7. Financial system
The trend towards digitalization of financial services will continue. Increased use of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) is possible.
8. Regional trends
- Europe. The euro area economy is expected to recover gradually, with GDP growth of 1.2% in 2025.
- Germany may lag behind other countries in the region, while Spain is likely to continue to outperform the average. The European Central Bank is likely to continue cutting interest rates.
- Asia-Pacific. Economic growth in the region may slow due to weaker global demand and U.S. trade policies.
- Latin America. By 2025, many of the region’s major economies will reach middle-income status. However, some states, especially those with long-standing populist policies, may lag behind.
- Africa. Sub-Saharan Africa will remain the most vulnerable to economic shocks, demographic pressures and political instability. Despite rising global demand for raw materials, local populations are unlikely to feel significant economic benefits.
Final Thoughts
It appears that the world in 2025 will be characterized by even greater uncertainty and volatility.
Geopolitical rivalries between great powers, technological innovations, digital solutions to support exporters and importers, and environmental challenges will be key drivers of global development.
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